Turkish elections talk about modern democracy

Md. Masum Billah: The previous week of this month witnessed Turkish general elections which declared Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s centre right Justice and Development ( AKP) party victorious with 325 seats out of 550. The party  received 49.9%. votes and has won for the third time.  The results fall short of two-third majority needed to rewrite Turkey’s military constitution. This number of seats is a comfortable majority  that ensures the continuation  of a  single party rule in Turkey. The party occupied 331 seats in the outgoing parliament.  Lawmakers of this country serve four-year terms. The Republican People’s party (CHP) stood  second with 25.9% vote. The only other party to gain seats in parliament, the Nationalist Movement party (NHP) took 13% seemingly unaffected by a sex tape scandal that caused the resignation of ten  senior party members. It is mentionable that  thirty-six independent candidates came to parliament most of them  are backed by the Kurdish BDP. Voter turnout was 84.79%. About 50 million Turks, or two-thirds of the population, were eligible to vote. For the first time voters cast ballots in transparent plastic boxes in which the yellow envelopes could be seen piling up. The measure was taken  to prevent any allegations of fraud . Prime Minister Erdogan has set a target of making Turkey one of the world’s ten largest economies by 2023. Average Turkish  per capita  income by 2023 will be $25000 a year, not far below that of Spain today. ( Dawn 06.10.’11). He targeted some mega projects as well. A Turkish  space program, an aviation industry  that designs and builds  aircraft  from scratch, even a 50-km canal west of Istanbul that bypasses the crowded  Bosphorus strait and connects  the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.  Per capita income in Turkey is already about the same as in Russia and Romania. So, it will not be an over ambitious plan for him to reach the goals is the comment of political analysts.  Turkish presidents are elected for up to two five-year terms. So, if Erdogan  turns to presidential government he may be in the office with popularity up to 2023 and he will be only 69 then. So, there lies the possibility to materialize his ambitious plans.

  Erdogan wants to implement a presidential system, “ Gencer Ozcan, professor for international  relations at Bilgi University  told the Guardian. “ This is the main goal of a new constitution. This is the first time that the prime minister handpicked all AKP  candidates, assuring  absolute  loyalty  within is own party. But the election result requires wider parliamentary consensus on a new constitution. Speaking at a victory rally in the capital, Ankara, Erdogan adopted conciliatory tone: “ Today workers, pensioners, farmers have won. People in the villages have won. Today 74 million people have won. Today the western world, Tripoli, Gaza have won. The Middle East, the Balkans, Europe have won. Peace, justice and stability have won. “Of the new constitution he said, “We will go to the opposition. We will consult with the media and academics to find a consensus. We will not close our doors regarding the constitution. Only because we haven’t reached 330 seats.”The political commentators have said that AKP will face a rocky third term. They   predict  a dangerously overheating economy , and Turkey’s ‘ zero-problem’ foreign policy is being challenged by regional uprisings such as that in neigbouring Syria, long an ally of AKP ruled Turkey. Another problem he will have to face is dealing with the Kurdish minority. A 34-year old Kurd Demir by name comments thus, We don’t want any canals, bridges or airports, he said in reference to Erdogan’s regeneration  schemes. “ We don’t need any ‘ crazy projects’. All we want is peace and end to the bloodshed in the south-east”. Of course, the previous term of Erdogan saw somehow good relations with the Kurdish. His political career says that he will be tactful enough to deal with them well.

Erdogan  has presided over strong economic  growth and a more assertive foreign policy since taking power. Under his rule, the country’s economy has more than tripled and exports have expanded to  132$ billion a year from $36 billion. There are 250 industrial zones in Anatolia. It registered economic growth  of 8.1% in 2010. Turkey has also played a positive role in trying to remove misunderstanding between Pakistan and  the Karzai government in Kabul. It will hold a conference of regional donors for Afghanistan in November this year. The country’s UN vote against sanctioning Iran and the proposal of a safe exit strategy  to Gaddafi are examples of its independent policy. Its outspoken criticism  of Israel’s Gaza policy  earned  admiration from Arab countries.  From its new standing Turkey  is benefitting from investment –flows  from Gulf  countries ( $6 billion  and has diversified its exports, in which Asian  share  has increased  from 14% to 25% during the last seven years. (DS June 22, 2011by Harunur Rashid)

It is known to us that Turkey is a NATO allay with a mostly Muslim population. The government expresses the desire to establish a Western-style democracy and join the European Union. But it has a root of Islamic ideology. So, the secularists who dominated Turkey raise a suspicion. Ifter Turan, a professor of political science at Istanbul’s Bilgi  University , said the ruling party now had political  capital  to spend, though hard  debate  awaits.  Erdogan had previously spoken about shifting Turky to a presidential system, a source of worry  for some Turks  who fear he will seek the post and stay in power for many years to come. “ If erdogan had reservations  on certain  policies  in the past, for fear of losing votes, he is now free to implement those. Turan added, he seems to be going toward a presidency . Such a presidential  system move is sure to create controversy in the country. “The current constitution of Turkey was adopted in 1982 under military rule which  is unsuitable for a modern democracy. In 2003, soon after the AKP came to power, the government undertook some constitutional reforms such as the Penal Code, limiting the military’s influence on politics and giving more cultural freedom to the Kurdish minority.  But the greatest success of Erdogan is to rein the military and not to allow them to influence state machinery and occupy state power. It is a healthy sign of democracy. So Turkey will go ahead with new prgorammes inclined to the welfare of the people.

(Md. Masum Billah, Program Manager: BRAC Education Program and regularly writes on various national and international issues,Cell: 01714-091431, Email: [email protected])