Challenges before Yingluck Sinawatra

Masum Billah:Thailand has elected a female prime minister for the first time in its history and she is going to take the office soon. Her party Peua Thai has bagged 265 seats out of 500 indicating peoples’ staunch support for Thaksin Sinawatra, the ousted prime minister who leads a self-exiled life in Dubai to avoid a two-year jail. Thaksin was elected prime minister twice. He lost the office by a military coup and the present Prime Minister Avijist Vejjajeva came to power in 2006. But the populist programs for the poor, toiling masses and farmers taken by Thaksin retained his popularity in the country which led the ‘red-shirt’ movement last year to dethrone Avijit. The ‘yellow-shirt’ supporters of Ajijit along with the military tried to foil the movement of the ‘red-shirts’. This   clearly shows the division among the two political parties. So, it is onerous task for Yingluck to reconcile the nation.Yingluck has already declared that social reconciliation is one of the main priorities she is going to deal with along with restoring political stability in the country. Political analysts express doubt that Yingluck does not have political
background which may stand in the way of her dealing with the crucial issues of politics developed over the years. But she has made a wise move of forming a coalition with four smaller parties in order to get the solid support they need within the parliament.

Thailand introduced democracy in 1932 after seven hundred years of Kingship. So far it has witnessed 26 general elections, 17 constitutions, 18 martial laws but it did not see female a prime minster so far. So, this year’s election has given Thailand a new dimension but with many challenges lying ahead in the realm of politics. Tul Sitlhisomwrong, a die-hard opponent of self –exiled  former prime minister Thaksin Sinawatra, accuses  prime minister elect, Yngluck Sinawatra, of perjury and wants the courts to indict her before she takes office.  He also says  Yingluck is unfit to rule and accuses her of giving false testimony and assets concealment investigation involving her brother three years ago. He gives his statement to the media men thus “The next Prime Minister has been involved in corruption and we fear this will be the beginning of another cycle that cannot be broken.” Tul is  a lecturer , gynecologist and obstetrician.

Yingluck has promised to follow her brother’s policies. Economic experts give their comments that Thaksin’s policy was pro-poor and pro-agricultural development. If the new prime minister follows the same path, it’s true that the poor people will enjoy much benefits but those
benefits call for huge amount of state budget which may invite inflation in the country. Moreover, she is a political novice. Another group is not afraid of her being a novice as her brother Thaksin is coming back to the country who will give necessary advice to his sister. But the thing itself is   challenging. Avijit declares that the return of Thaksin to the country means creating chaos. But Thaksin says that he is not coming to take the charge of the party. Rather he will retire from the party and just give necessary suggestions and advice to the party. Thaksin’s pro-poor policy angered the urban middle class, military and the urban businessmen who received support from the army. This group is still very active in the country.They symbolize ‘yellow shirt’ which actually means  –royalists and loyalists ,bureaucrats, military officers, conservative businessmen and the urban elites. Tul mobilized thousands of demonstrators last year in counter protest against a nine-week occupation of central Bangkok by Thaksin’s red-shirted supporters. Tul is a member of the royalist People’s Alliance for Democracy or ‘Yellow Shirts’. The
political agitation and protest which Bangkok streets witnessed last year claimed the life of 91 people and about two thousand wounded. They put pressure on Yingluck  to take action against the perpetrators. Will it be possible for Yingluck to do it remains a big question? If she wants to do so, the ‘yellow- shirt’ followers backed by armed forces which is very strong in Thailand may not easily accept it and try to invite the same situation as the supporters of Thaksin symbolized by ‘ red-shirt’ exercised last year. If it really happens, Yingluck will surely find it difficult to deal with. She will face pressure from her own party men if she does not take action against the killers, if she does she will have to face nationwide protest which may be organized by‘ yellow-shirt’ people. Yingluck has said, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission would continue to investigate the mostly civilian killings, which the red-shits blame on the military. She has suggested a general amnesty as a way to achieve  national reconciliation but some party men suggest not to ‘ jump into general amnesty’ as they swallowed bitter experience.

The price of necessary commodities is already high in Thailand.  It will be difficult to rein the price as the elite businessmen who are already antagonistic towards Thaksin family may try to throw them into the trap. If she cannot handle the matter successfully, even the poor may withdraw their support. She must take and exercise her business experience to control the price. Of course, Yingluck said in her election campaign that she would use all her experiences gained through business for the country.

Despite controlling about sixty percent of parliament in a planned  six-party  coalition, Yingluck msut avoid  antagonizing the militaries top
brass and the royalist establishment –powerful forces that removed her brother form power in 2006 is one of Thialnd’s coups since the 1030s. Though she is a political novice, this decision proves her acumen. The doubt about the role of his brother and his role in the party  Yingluck. explains thus, ‘There is no role for Thaksin. He is only giving moral support and advice. He is fine overseas and he is not anticipating any political position. He merely wants to see national reconciliation.” Anthropologist Charles Keys of the University of Washington talks about the Thai election and politics thus “Winning an election in Thailand is very different from actually governing a divided society in which powerful
interests are loath to give up their privileges. We wish Thailand, the emerging tiger of the South-East Asia, run fast with resolving all political crises under the new leadership. Let real democracy prevail in Thailand reining the uniformed people in the cantonments.

(Masum Billah,Program,Manager: BRAC Education Program,Cell:01714-091431,Email: [email protected])